The CNN entrance poll shows that Ron Paul handily won under 40 voters in Iowa. He would have won easily if Baby Boomers and Silent Generation voters had been restricted from participating in the Iowa Caucus.
Here’s a breakdown of the Ron Paul vote in Iowa:
(1) Ron Paul won 24 percent of male voters. Romney and Santorum won 23 percent and 23 percent of male voters respectively. Santorum won 27 percent of female voters.
(2) Ron Paul won 48 percent of voters 17 to 29, 26 percent of voters 30 to 44, 16 percent of 45 to 64 voters, and 11 percent of over 65 voters.
(3) Ron Paul won 50 percent of voters 17 to 24, 45 percent of voters 25 to 29, and 34 percent of voters 30 to 39. Rick Santorum won 25 percent of voters 40 to 49 and 27 percent of voters 50 to 64. Mitt Romney won 33 percent of voters 65 and older.
(4) Ron Paul won 20 percent of “never attended college” voters, 22 percent of “some college” voters, 25 percent of college graduates, and 16 percent of postgraduates. Romney won 29 percent of post graduates and Santorum won 27 percent of post graduates.
(5) Ron Paul won 22 percent of “attended college” voters and 20 percent of “no college education” voters. 21 percent of Paul voters were college graduates and 22 percent have no college degree.
(6) Ron Paul won 37 percent of voters making less than $30,000 a year and 26 percent of voters making less than $50,000 a year. 21 percent of Ron Paul voters make $50,000 to $100,000 a year. 14 percent of Ron Paul voters make over $100,000 a year.
Rick Santorum won 29 percent of voters making $50,000 to $100,000 a year. Mitt Romney won 36 percent of voters making over $100,000 a year.
(7) Ron Paul won 31 percent of less than $50,000 a year voters. He won 25 percent of less than $100,000 a year voters.
(8) Ron Paul won 33 percent of voters who had never attended an Iowa Caucus. Mitt Romney won 29 percent of those who had attended an Iowa Caucus.
(9) Ron Paul won 43 percent of Independent voters. Santorum won 29 percent of Republican voters. Mitt Romney won 27 percent of Republican voters. Ron Paul won 14 percent of Republican voters.
(10) Ron Paul won 40 percent of voters who are “Moderate or Liberal.” Rick Santorum won 35 percent of “Very Conservative” voters. Mitt Romney won 32 percent of “Somewhat Conservative” voters.
(11) Ron Paul won 16 percent of voters who “Strongly Support” the Tea Party and 22 percent of voters who “Somewhat Support” the Tea Party. 28 percent of voters who are “Neutral” to the Tea Party voted for Ron Paul. 21 percent of voters who “Somewhat Oppose” the Tea Party voted for Ron Paul.
Rick Santorum won the Tea Party vote: 30 percent of “Strongly Support” and 27 percent of “Somewhat Support” voters picked Santorum. 32 percent of “Neutral” and 48 percent of “Somewhat Oppose” voters picked Romney.
(12) Ron Paul won 18 percent of Evangelical Christians and 26 percent of “Non-Evangelicals.” Rick Santorum won 32 percent of Evangelicals. 38 percent of Romney voters are not Evangelicals.
(13) Ron Paul won 7 percent of “Abortion” voters, 28 percent of “Budget Deficit” voters, and 20 percent of “Economy” voters. Rick Santorum won 58 percent of “Abortion” voters and 19 percent of “Budget Deficit” and “Economy” voters. Mitt Romney won 33 percent of “Economy” voters, 21 percent of “Budget Deficit” voters, and 7 percent of “Abortion” voters.
(14) Ron Paul won 37 percent of “True Conservative” voters, 23 percent of “Strong Moral Character” voters, 16 percent of “Right Experience” voters and 7 percent of “Can Beat Obama” voters. Romney won 48 percent of “Can Beat Obama” voters and 35 percent of “Right Experience” voters. Santorum won 40 percent of “Strong Moral Character” voters.
(15) Ron Paul won 25 percent of “Strong Favor Your Candidate” voters. Mitt Romney won 29 percent of “Have Reservations” voters.
(16) Ron Paul won 37 percent of “Before December” voters. Rick Santorum won 35 percent of “Today” voters, 33 percent of “Last Few Days,” and 28 percent of “December” voters.
(17) Ron Paul won 27 percent of voters who said they were not swayed by campaign ads. 18 percent of voters who said it was a minor factor. 19 percent of voters who said it was an important factor.
(18) Ron Paul won 26 percent of Urban voters, 18 percent of Suburban voters, and 21 percent of Rural voters. 34 percent of Romney voters live in Suburbs. 26 percent of Santorum voters live in Rural areas.
(19) Ron Paul won 25 and 23 percent of voters in East and Central Iowa. 17 percent of Ron Paul voters are from Western Iowa. Romney won 31 percent of voters in East Iowa. Rick Santorum won 30 percent of voters in Western Iowa.
Here’s a portrait of the Ron Paul voters: under the age of 40, strongly committed to their candidate, non-Evangelical, predominantly White males, mostly independents and moderates, supporters of a “true conservative” candidate, reside in urban and rural areas, working class to lower middle class, motivated by the economy and budget deficit, lukewarm on the “Tea Party.”
Paul’s third place victory in the Iowa Caucus is an extraordinary political accomplishment. He is mobilizing younger voters, Independent voters, and especially Moderate and Liberal voters to support a candidate who supports cutting off all foreign to Israel and who voted against renewal of the Voting Rights Act and who still opposes the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
He improved on his 2008 performance in Iowa (surging from 9.5 percent to 21.5 percent of the vote) without compromising his principles. Instead, Ron Paul seems to have captured a larger slice of the electorate by winning over and mobilizing White Millennial and Gen X voters, more of whom were eligible to vote in 2012 than 2008.
Tellingly, Ron Paul has managed to thrive in spite of being smeared as an “anti-Semite,” a “racist,” and a “secessionist.” Although he has given rhetorical lip service to MLK and Rosa Parks, he substantially opposes the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act and the Great Society welfare state, which are the foundation of BRA.
This will have to be further analyzed through the prism of the “mainstreamer” vs. “vanguardist” paradigm. Like the spread of “Arizona-style immigration laws” (the issue goes before the Supreme Court this year), the Ron Paul presidential campaign is another example of the “mainstreaming” of issues which have been labeled “fringe” for decades now.
Note: 99 percent of voters in the Iowa Republican Caucus are White. The Republican Primary is effectively a White primary.